What is Technical Analysis?
1.1 What is Technical Analysis?
Technical Analysis can be defined as an art and science of forecasting future prices based on an examination of the past price movements. Technical analysis is not astrology for predicting prices. Technical analysis is based on analyzing current demand-supply of commodities,
stocks, indices, futures or any tradable instrument.
Technical analysis involve putting stock information like prices, volumes and open interest on a chart and applying various patterns and indicators to it in order to assess the future price movements. The time frame in which technical analysis is applied may range from intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data to many years.
There are essentially two methods of analyzing investment opportunities in the security market viz fundamental analysis and technical analysis. You can use fundamental information like financial and non-financial aspects of the company or technical information which ignores fundamentals and focuses on actual price movements.
The basis of Technical Analysis
What makes Technical Analysis an effective tool to analyze price behavior is explained by following theories given by Charles Dow:
• Price discounts everything
• Price movements are not totally random
• What is more important than why
1.1.1 Price discounts everything
Each price represents a momentary consensus of value of all market participants – large commercial interests and small speculators, fundamental researchers, technicians and gamblers- at the moment of transaction” – Dr Alexander Elder
Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all the possible material information which could affect the price. The market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It would be folly to disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of people with impeccable credentials. Technical analysis looks at the price and what it has done in the past and assumes it will perform similarly in future under similar circumstances. Technical analysis looks at the price and assumes that it will perform in the same way as done in the past under similar circumstances in future.
click to read more : price movements.
Here are the best technical analysis books : Technical Analysis